Working Paper Draft Economic Analysis of Persistent Civil Conflict : Violence , Corruption and Rent - Seeking

Economics of conflict, corruption and rent seeking are combined to create an analytical framework for empirical research on the phenomenon of prolonged civil conflict. Prolonged conflict is understood to last across at least one generation in a society. Game theory and a supporting narrative identify five empirical hypotheses to be tested against qualitative and quantitative data developed from contemporary and historical case studies of conflict. Inspiration for this framework and potential case studies include the civil conflicts in Chechnya, Colombia, Nagaland in northeastern India, Northern Ireland, and Sri Lanka. The central hypothesis is that economic rents available to a corrupted rebel group under conditions of conflict outweigh their costs of engaging in conflict, and thus serve as an incentive to prolong fighting even when the communities on both sides would gain from settlement.